NHL odds, preview, prediction: Oilers vs. Canucks Game 5 for Thu. 5/16

Edmonton Oilers

Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch offered journeyman backup Calvin Pickard the opportunity to make his first career playoff start in Game 4. Pickard's .909 save % in 23 appearances this regular season was actually better than that of Stuart Skinner, but the move was still bold.

The move paid dividends, as Pickard stopped 19-of-21 shots faced in the victory.

Not to take away from Pickard's great story, but it has to be noted that the Oilers did a tremendous job of limiting quality scoring chances. Per NaturalStatTrick, the Oilers allowed just three high-danger scoring chances against at 5-on-5.

Knoblauch also finally decided to break apart the defensive pairing of Cody Ceci and Darnell Nurse in Game 4, a duo that had been a train wreck throughout the playoffs.

Ceci still struggled on the third pairing, but the Oilers second defensive pairing was far more effective with Nurse playing alongside Vincent Desharnais. As a result, the new-look was effective. Nurse owned a 66.5% expected goal share and the Oilers out chanced the Canucks 8-4 with him on the ice.

Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks have proven that they can win with less of the overall play, but are stretching that notion pretty far in this series. They own an expected goal share of only 39.37% and have scored on an absurd 17% of shots taken. For those reasons, they should feel thankful to be tied at two.

One positive is that the Canucks have skaters who should be capable of offering more in the final two or three games of this series. Coach Rick Tocchet called out the fact that his side had far too many passengers in Game 4, which prevented the Canucks perceived depth advantage from shining through.

The Oilers have relied extremely heavily upon five players to win in this series — Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm and Zach Hyman.

If Canucks skaters, such as Elias Pettersson, can find a higher level, it could make the Oilers lack of roster balance look like more of a flaw than it has thus far.

Oilers vs. Canucks

Betting Pick & Prediction

Edmonton should continue to own more of the overall play and create more of the overall chances in this series. Still, the Canucks have proven to be scrappy in those type of game scripts.

There are skaters on the Canucks with more to give, and it seems likely that they can bring a sharper defensive performance on home ice in this matchup. For those reasons, I believe the sides on this game are appropriately priced.

In 5-on-5 play, we should see the Canucks be able to prevent the Oilers from generating a lofty output of chances. Officials tend to call less later in a series, which would be help an under bet significantly by keeping a historically strong Oilers' power play off the ice.

Meanwhile, the Canucks are generating very little this postseason. That point was made abundantly clear by Pickard simply stopping the chances he was supposed to, and nothing else in Game 4. If we see reasonable goaltending, this matchup should have a good chance of finishing under the total.

There is value in betting this game to go Under 6.5 at anything better than -130. It's not overly appealing to bet an under in an Oilers game featuring two backups, but this matchup calls for it.

Pick: Under 6.5 (-125) at Bet365 | Play to -130